A repeat pattern of founder events for SARS-CoV-2 variants in Alaska (preprint)

Alaska is a unique US state because of its large size, geographically disparate population density, and physical distance from the contiguous United States. Here, we describe a pattern of SARS-CoV-2 variant emergence across Alaska reflective of these differences. Using genomic data, we found that in Alaska the Omicron sublineage BA.2.3 overtook BA.1.1 by the week of 2022-02-27, reaching 48.5% of sequenced cases. On the contrary in the contiguous United States, BA.1.1 dominated cases for longer, eventually being displaced by BA.2 sublineages other than BA.2.3. BA.2.3 only reached a prevalence of 10.9% in the contiguous United States. Using phylogenetics, we found evidence of potential origins of the two major clades of BA.2.3 in Alaska and with logistic regression estimated how it emerged and spread throughout the state. The combined evidence is suggestive of founder events in Alaska and is reflective of how Alaskas unique dynamics influence the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Founder effect contributes to the unique pattern of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.519 emergence in Alaska (preprint)

Alaska is the largest geographic state in the United States with the lowest population density and a mix of urban centers and isolated rural communities. The differences in population dynamics in Alaska from the contiguous United States may have contributed to a unique pattern of emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants observed in early 2021. Here we examined 2,323 virus genomes from Alaska and 278,635 virus genomes from the contiguous United States collected between the first week of December 2020 through the last week of June 2021. We focused on this timeframe because of the notable emergence and spread of the SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.519 observed in Alaska. We found that this variant was consistently detected in Alaska from the end of January through June of 2021 with a peak prevalence in April of 77.9% unlike the rest of the United States with a peak prevalence of 4.6%. In Alaska, the earlier emergence of B.1.1.519 coincided with a later peak of Alpha (B.1.1.7) when compared to the rest of the United States. We also observed differences in the composition of lineages and variants over time between the two most populated regions of Alaska. Although there was a modest increase in COVID-19 cases during the peak incidence of B.1.1.519, it is difficult to disentangle how social dynamics conflated changes in COVID-19 during this time. We suggest that the viral characteristics, such as amino acid substitutions in the spike protein, and a founder effect likely contributed to the unique spread of B.1.1.519 in Alaska.

Tracking SARS-COV-2 Variants Using Nanopore Sequencing in Ukraine in Summer 2021 (preprint)

Since spring 2020, Ukraine has experienced at least two COVID-19 waves and has just entered a third wave in autumn 2021. The use of real-time genomic epidemiology has enabled the tracking of SARS-CoV-2 circulation patterns worldwide, thus informing evidence-based public health decision making, including implementation of travel restrictions and vaccine rollout strategies. However, insufficient capacity for local genetic sequencing in Ukraine and other Lower and Middle-Income countries limit opportunities for similar analyses. Herein, we report local sequencing of 24 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from patient samples collected in Kyiv in July 2021 using Oxford Nanopore MinION technology. Together with other published Ukrainian SARS-COV-2 genomes sequenced mostly abroad, our data suggest that the second wave of the epidemic in Ukraine (February-April 2021) was dominated by the Alpha variant of concern (VOC), while the beginning of the third wave has been dominated by the Delta VOC. Furthermore, our phylogeographic analysis revealed that the Delta variant was introduced into Ukraine in summer 2021 from multiple locations worldwide, with most introductions coming from Central and Eastern European countries. This study highlights the need to urgently integrate affordable and easily-scaled pathogen sequencing technologies in locations with less developed genomic infrastructure, in order to support local public health decision making.

Implications of Inadequate Water and Sanitation Infrastructure for Community Spread of COVID-19 in Remote Alaskan Communities (preprint)

The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19, emerged in the human population in December 2019 and spread worldwide within a few short months. Much of the public health focus for preventing and mitigating the spread of COVID-19 has been on individual and collective behaviors, such as social distancing, mask-wearing, and hygiene. Yet it is equally important to recognize that these behaviors and health outcomes occur within broader social and environmental contexts. Factors within local communities, regional policy, race, history, personal beliefs, and natural- and built environmental characteristics affect underlying population health and the spread of disease. For example, COVID-19 has renewed attention to secure water and sanitation services and their importance in protecting human health. Many remote Alaskan communities are particularly vulnerable because of inadequate water and sanitation systems. In this paper, we describe how inadequate water and sewer services may place the inhabitants of remote Alaskan communities at higher risk of COVID spread. We argue that insufficient water security and inadequate sewer systems, along with household overcrowding, multigenerational residences, limited transportation options, limited medical facilities, and higher prevalence of chronic diseases could lead to a greater potential of COVID-19 transmission and to more severe disease outcomes in these communities.